If you're leading an FMCG or food manufacturing business right now, you're probably still talking about growth.
Your board might be chasing headcount approvals. Your marketing team’s pitching a new brand campaign. Your category team’s assuming spend will bounce.
But your customer?
They’ve already moved on. Quietly. Like they always do.
The illusion of resilience
FMCG has always felt protected, “essential” by nature. People still eat, wash, shop. It’s easy to assume downturns pass around us, not through us.
But this isn’t 2020. Recessions in 2025 won’t look like lockdowns. They’ll look like volume drops that no promo can fix. Shrinking margins on products that no longer carry their premium. Quiet shelf deletions you weren’t warned about.
The data’s already there. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer spending is slowing in real terms, even as inflation eases. The Reserve Bank confirmed in May: household consumption remains subdued amid weak real income growth. And over 80% of Australians have cut back on discretionary food spending, according to Finder. They’re still shopping, just not like they used to.
A managing director at a national food manufacturer told me recently:
“We won a new product listing in April. By July, it was marked for deletion. The velocity wasn’t there, but neither was the shopper. We’d forecasted like 2022 never ended. Rookie mistake.”
That one stuck with me. Because I’ve heard it before, just in different words.

Growth thinking in a shrinking market
Despite clear headwinds, many FMCG companies are still chasing growth-centric hires, brand, commercial, sales.
But recessions don’t reward momentum. They reward discipline. They reward slowness. They reward the uncomfortable.
Miller Leith’s 2024 FMCG & Retail Insights Report showed less than 20% of employers are actively hiring in supply chain, finance, or transformation, the roles that stabilise companies in downturns. Commercial hiring still dominates.
KPMG’s
Disruption Decoded report found 52% of private company leaders were “very concerned” about retaining critical talent, but only 27% had changed workforce strategy to reflect it (KPMG).
In short: everyone’s worried, but no one’s moving.
What retailers won’t tell you
Retailers look stable. Supermarkets are booking profit. But that strength? It’s downstream pain.
Small-to-mid-tier brands are being squeezed on funding, shelf terms, and promotional ROI. According to IRI,
trade spend rose 9.7% YoY in 2024, and over 30% of promotions delivered negative ROI.
But it’s not just numbers. It’s about silence.
No one says: "You're about to lose that listing."
No one says: "We’re expanding private label next quarter."
You feel it only when it’s too late. Private label is climbing. Fast. In multiple categories. (IRI Trends). And when shoppers make that switch, they rarely return.
The truth no one wants to say aloud
If a recession hits in 2025, it won’t catch leaders off guard.
It’ll catch them mid-denial.
Because most boards are still clinging to growth assumptions like nothing’s changed. They’re approving spend like it’s 2022. Hiring for upside. Ignoring erosion.
One COO recently said: “Our board was still using 2021 volume baselines in April. I had to fight just to model in a negative scenario.”
That’s not prudence. That’s negligence.
What brave leadership looks like now
The best CEOs aren’t hopeful. They’re ready.
They’re planning for contraction. Not just the numbers, the sentiment.
They’re asking:
- What if our #1 product goes backwards for two straight quarters?
- What if our supplier folds?
- What if our category dies, and no one wants to say it out loud?
They’re keeping talent who’ve lived through downturns. They’re protecting margin like it’s oxygen. They’re not waiting for perfect clarity. Just enough to move. Because this isn’t a quarter to watch. It’s a moment to act.
Final word
You don’t need a bigger forecast.
You need to decide whether you’re leading for the market you hope is coming, or the one your customer is already living in.
Because if you’re not planning for contraction, then someone else is.
And they’ll be the ones left standing.

